July 1, 2025

Everyone Is Buying BTC, Crypto Deal Flow, Ripple Doesn't Settle, Tokenize Me

Top Stories

Polymarket Nears $1B Valuation in New Funding Round

Polymarket is finalizing a $200 million funding round led by Founders Fund, placing the decentralized prediction market at a $1 billion valuation. The raise, which includes $50 million in previously undisclosed commitments, positions Polymarket as one of crypto’s latest unicorns amid a resurgence in event-driven trading platforms. Best known for its real-time odds on politics and current events, the platform has seen over $1 billion in monthly trading volume despite continued geoblocking of U.S. users due to CFTC restrictions. The capital will be used to expand globally, scale infrastructure, and potentially launch a token. The timing aligns with renewed interest ahead of the 2024 U.S. election cycle, signaling that institutional investors see prediction markets as a durable crypto use case—even as regulatory uncertainty lingers.

Bringing Stability to Digital Assets: Stablecoin and Payments VC Deals Hit Record Highs

The stablecoin and payments sector has emerged as a breakout leader in crypto venture funding, posting record-breaking deal counts in Q3 and Q4 2024 with 43 and 42 investments, respectively—surpassing the 87 deals recorded across all of 2021. In Q1 2025, 7.5% of all VC deals targeted this category, which includes stablecoin issuers and payment processors. The sector’s momentum has been fueled by Circle’s blockbuster IPO, growing mainstream adoption, and a wave of institutional capital spurred by the regulatory clarity provided by the GENIUS Act. As one of the few crypto verticals to exceed its last cycle's peak, stablecoin infrastructure is now viewed as a credible, scalable entry point for traditional investors seeking long-term exposure to blockchain-based financial rails.

Source: The Block

Bitcoin ETFs Drive Price Action, While Treasury Firms Create Less Demand

Bitcoin ETF flows continue to exert significant influence on price, with a 30-day R² of 0.80 indicating they explain 80% of BTC return variance, according to K33. In contrast, the recent wave of bitcoin treasury companies has had a far weaker effect, with an R² of just 0.18. While legacy firms like Strategy buy BTC on the open market using raised capital, many newer entrants—over 50 in the past three months—are accumulating BTC through in-kind share swaps with large holders like Tether and Bitfinex. These structures create little net buying pressure, diluting the price impact of treasury activity and potentially diverting capital from spot purchases, Lunde noted, as investors opt into offerings or fund treasury firms directly using BTC.

Source: The Block

Regulation

Judge Rejects Ripple–SEC Settlement, Upholds $125M Penalty and Injunction

U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres has denied a joint motion from Ripple Labs and the SEC to reduce Ripple’s $125 million penalty and dissolve its sales injunction, ruling that neither party can disregard a final judgment simply because regulatory tone has shifted. The decision, delivered less than two weeks after the proposal, emphasized the court’s prior finding that Ripple’s institutional XRP sales violated securities laws—even as its programmatic sales did not. While the SEC under President Trump has backed off several crypto cases, Torres noted that her legal reasoning remains unchanged, stating that "none of this has changed—and the parties hardly pretend that it has." Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty acknowledged the setback, saying “the ball is back in our court,” while affirming that XRP’s non-security status for public market sales remains intact. The ruling underscores the enduring legal impact of prior SEC enforcement actions, despite evolving regulatory sentiment.

Dinari Becomes First U.S.-Approved Broker-Dealer for Tokenized Stocks

Dinari has become the first platform in the U.S. to receive broker-dealer registration to offer tokenized equities, marking a regulatory breakthrough for blockchain-based stock trading. The San Francisco startup will soon begin operations under SEC oversight, allowing it to offer digital representations of U.S. stocks—called dShares—via blockchain. While tokenized equities have been limited to offshore markets until now, Dinari’s approval sets a precedent as Coinbase and Kraken also pursue similar offerings. Advocates argue that tokenized stocks can reduce trading costs, improve settlement speed, and enable 24/7 trading, but challenges remain around liquidity and global standardization. Dinari will initially integrate with partner platforms rather than operate as a direct-to-consumer brokerage. Read similar: Robinhood Launches Stock Tokens, Reveals Layer 2 Blockchain, and Expands Crypto Suite in EU and US with Perpetual Futures and Staking

Metaplanet Surpasses Tesla with 12,345 BTC, Eyes 1% of Bitcoin Supply

Tokyo-listed Metaplanet has acquired another 1,234 BTC for $132.7 million at an average price of $107,557, bringing its total holdings to 12,345 BTC—now worth approximately $1.3 billion. This latest purchase moves Metaplanet past Tesla’s 11,509 BTC and into the No. 7 spot among publicly traded bitcoin holders. The buy follows a $515 million stock issuance completed just one day prior, part of the firm’s “555 million plan” to accumulate 1% of Bitcoin’s total supply by 2027. While Metaplanet’s stock has dipped over 16% in the past week, it remains up over 300% year-to-date. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) still leads all public firms with 592,345 BTC after adding 245 BTC last week.

Source: BitcoinTreasuries

Pompliano’s ProCap Targets $1B in Bitcoin, Eyes Yield-Generating Treasury Model

Anthony Pompliano’s newly announced ProCap Financial plans to hold $1 billion in Bitcoin following a merger with Nasdaq-listed Columbus Circle Capital (CCCM), with a stated mission to “implement risk-mitigated solutions” that generate revenue from its BTC holdings. Backed by $750 million in funding from institutional and crypto investors, ProCap joins a growing list of public firms adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Unlike many buy-and-hold treasury plays, ProCap aims to actively deploy its BTC balance to build financial products and services. While the model echoes Strategy’s transformation under Michael Saylor, analysts caution that the trend—especially when fueled by leverage—could pose systemic risk if Bitcoin prices sharply correct. ProCap’s launch adds to the 134 public firms now holding a combined 835,000 BTC worth $85 billion, underscoring the continued financialization of Bitcoin in traditional markets.

Other Domestic Regulation Updates

Other International Regulation Updates

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Important Legal Notices

This reflects the views MJL Capital LLC (“MJL”), but it should in no way be construed to represent financial or investment advice. Nothing in this correspondence is intended to constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an issue for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer or invitation to subscribe for, underwrite, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any security, including any interest in any private investment fund managed by MJL. Any such offer may only be made pursuant to a formal confidential private placement memorandum of any such fund, which may be furnished to potential investors upon request and which will contain important information to be considered in connection with any such investment, including risk factors associated with making any investment in any such fund. Further, nothing in this correspondence is, or is intended to be treated as, investment or tax advice. Each recipient should consult their own legal, tax and other professional advisors in connection with investment decisions.

Domenic Salvo

Domenic Salvo is a Managing Partner at MJL Capital, helping lead Portfolio Research and Investor Relations.

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