July 15, 2025

🔮 The Prediction Market Landscape, Political Crypto, Airdrops, Corporate Buying

Top Stories

Polymarket Volume Hits $1.16B in June Amid Growing Market Breadth, But Active Traders Decline

Polymarket processed $1.16 billion in volume during June 2025, a 9.4% month-over-month increase and its highest total since January’s $1.26 billion. The platform also launched a record 7,990 new markets in June -- up 21.4% -- highlighting its shift away from concentrated political betting toward broader prediction categories. However, active traders dropped 9.4% to 242,000, down nearly 48% from January highs. This divergence suggests rising intensity among a smaller group of users, with average notional per trader jumping from $2.7K in January to $4.8K in June. The trend underscores strong engagement but raises concerns about slowing top-of-funnel growth despite market expansion.

Source: DefiLlama

Pump.fun Announces $600M Token Sale Ahead of Airdrop

Solana-based memecoin launcher Pump.fun will hold its first and only public token sale from July 12–15, selling 150 billion PUMP tokens at $0.004 each to raise $600 million at a $4 billion valuation. The sale, hosted by exchanges including Bybit, Kraken, and KuCoin, excludes U.S. and UK participants and follows a prior 18% private allocation. With 15% of the total supply reserved for the public, Pump.fun teased an upcoming airdrop and hopes to regain momentum after recent traction loss to rivals like LetsBonk.

Myriad Protocol Goes Multichain With Linea Launch and EigenCloud Integration

Myriad Protocol has officially launched as a multichain prediction market infrastructure, expanding to Ethereum Layer 2 Linea to bring decentralized forecasting tools “everywhere, for everyone.” Built with EigenCloud components, the protocol enables trustless revenue sharing, censorship-resistant oracles, and synthetic token staking via EigenLayer. With support from media partners like Decrypt and Rug Radio, Myriad aims to power prediction markets across content platforms, DeFi, and beyond—starting with Linea and promising broader chain integrations ahead.

Regulation

Elon Musk Launches “America Party,” Endorses Bitcoin, Breaks with Trump

Elon Musk announced the formation of the “America Party” this weekend, confirming it will support bitcoin. “Fiat is hopeless, so yes” Musk replied when asked on X if the party backs BTC. The move follows a break with Trump over the $3.4 trillion “Big, Beautiful Bill” which Musk criticized as fiscally irresponsible. He said the U.S. has become a “one-party system” on spending and vowed to challenge the two-party status quo by targeting key House and Senate races. Trump dismissed the effort, calling Musk “off the rails” and predicting the party would fail.

Crypto ETF Market Swells to $150B as Staked Solana Fund Breaks New Ground

Bitcoin and crypto ETFs continue to gain momentum, with total assets under management nearing $150 billion as institutional adoption deepens. The latest wave of growth is reinforced by corporate treasury moves, such as Figma disclosing $70 million in Bitcoin ETF holdings and another $30 million in USDC earmarked for BTC. The ETF universe broadened further with the July 2 launch of a staked Solana ETF -- a first-of-its-kind product enabling investors to earn staking rewards within a traditional ETF wrapper. Analysts view this as a key precedent for staking-enabled Ethereum ETFs and others, as regulatory comfort around staking grows. Positive stock reactions to corporate crypto allocations are fueling a feedback loop of adoption, while a swelling ETF pipeline -- including XRP and Doge filings -- points to a rapidly expanding market. Staking ETFs may help fast-track approvals for income-generating crypto vehicles that align with conventional investor preferences.

Source: BitcoinTreasuries.Net

Truth Social Files for “Crypto Blue Chip” ETF Tracking BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, CRO

Trump Media’s Truth Social has filed an S-1 registration with the SEC for a “Crypto Blue Chip” ETF that will track a curated basket of digital assets: 70% BTC, 15% ETH, 8% SOL, 5% CRO, and 2% XRP. Sponsored by Yorkville America Digital and custodied by Crypto.com’s Foris DAX Trust, the ETF would trade on NYSE Arca if approved. This move expands on Truth Social’s earlier ETF filings for Bitcoin and a Bitcoin-Ethereum combo, signaling deeper ambitions in crypto capital markets. The ETF aligns with Trump Media’s broader partnership strategy to promote “Made in America” digital financial products.

Treasury Drops Appeal in Tornado Cash Case as Co-Founder Faces Trial

The U.S. Treasury Department has formally ended its appeal against Coin Center over Ethereum mixer Tornado Cash, following the March decision to lift sanctions originally imposed in 2022. The government’s withdrawal signals an unwillingness to defend its earlier broad interpretation of sanctions law, particularly regarding immutable smart contracts. While the civil case is closed, co-founder Roman Storm still faces a criminal trial next week in New York, charged with money laundering and sanctions evasion. If convicted, he could face up to 45 years in prison, echoing the 64-month sentence handed to fellow developer Alexey Pertsev in the Netherlands.

Ripple Picks BNY Mellon to Custody RLUSD as Stablecoin Hits $500M

Ripple has named BNY Mellon as the primary custodian for its RLUSD stablecoin, highlighting growing institutional support amid easing regulatory pressure. With RLUSD reaching a $500 million market cap, CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the partnership with the $43 trillion asset manager signals a shift from regulatory headwinds to collaboration. BNY will handle transaction banking services and integrated solutions for RLUSD, echoing its earlier role with USDC.

Other Domestic Regulation Updates

Other International Regulation Updates

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This reflects the views MJL Capital LLC (“MJL”), but it should in no way be construed to represent financial or investment advice. Nothing in this correspondence is intended to constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an issue for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer or invitation to subscribe for, underwrite, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any security, including any interest in any private investment fund managed by MJL. Any such offer may only be made pursuant to a formal confidential private placement memorandum of any such fund, which may be furnished to potential investors upon request and which will contain important information to be considered in connection with any such investment, including risk factors associated with making any investment in any such fund. Further, nothing in this correspondence is, or is intended to be treated as, investment or tax advice. Each recipient should consult their own legal, tax and other professional advisors in connection with investment decisions.

Domenic Salvo

Domenic Salvo is a Managing Partner at MJL Capital, helping lead Portfolio Research and Investor Relations.

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