🔮 Predicting Fundraising, Crypto SPAC, Stable Growth, Crash Compensation

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I Predict Prediction Fundraising

Prediction markets are entering a new era of mainstream momentum, with Polymarket and Kalshi announcing landmark funding rounds last week. Polymarket raised $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), valuing it at $9 billion, while Kalshi secured $300 million at a $5 billion valuation. Bloomberg reports that Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan has become the youngest self-made billionaire following the raise. The two platforms together processed a record $1.44 billion in September trading volume, highlighting surging institutional and retail interest. Kalshi briefly captured 60% market share, driven by its integration with Robinhood that allows users to place sports bets directly in-app. While Kalshi operates off-chain with traditional APIs, Polymarket runs fully on-chain with transparent data on Polygon. The contrast underscores two distinct models—regulated versus verifiable—as prediction markets evolve from niche crypto experiments into mainstream financial infrastructure.

Source: The Block

Ripple Plans $1B SPAC Raise to Launch XRP Digital Asset Treasury

Ripple is reportedly leading a $1 billion fundraising effort to establish a new XRP digital asset treasury (DAT), according to Bloomberg sources. The raise is expected to take place through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), with Ripple contributing part of its extensive XRP holdings to the vehicle. While the deal structure is still being finalized, the new entity could become the largest XRP-focused DAT ever created. The initiative follows cooling sentiment across the broader DAT sector—where firms like Strategy, Metaplanet, and BitMine now trade below their net crypto asset values—and mirrors Singapore-based Trident Digital’s June plan to raise $500 million for a similar XRP treasury. If successful, Ripple’s move would reinforce institutional positioning around XRP and expand its presence in on-chain treasury management.

Ant Group Launches Ethereum Layer 2 ‘Jovay’ — Potential Alipay Integration Could Be a Game-Changer

Ant Group, the company behind Alipay, has launched Jovay, an Ethereum Layer 2 network aimed at bridging web2 and web3. With 1.4 billion monthly active users and $20 trillion in annual transaction volume, Alipay is larger than Apple Pay and Google Pay combined, making Ant’s move into Ethereum scaling potentially one of the biggest developments in crypto. While there is no confirmed integration between Alipay and Jovay, even a 1 percent conversion of Alipay’s users would mean around 14 million monthly active addresses, surpassing Base’s current user count. Jovay’s goal of merging web2 convenience with web3 infrastructure aligns with China’s culture of building integrated “everything apps,” suggesting that if Alipay adoption follows, Jovay could quickly become the largest Layer 2 network by user activity.

Ethena’s USDe Depeg Sparks Oracle Debate After $19B Crypto Liquidations

During the October 10, 2025 crypto crash that erased over $19 billion in leveraged positions, Ethena’s USDe briefly depegged to $0.65 on Binance for about 90 minutes due to thin liquidity and technical glitches, while maintaining parity on onchain venues like Curve. The incident reignited debate over oracle design, as critics blamed Binance’s internal orderbook oracle for ignoring deeper decentralized liquidity, while others advocated for hybrid models combining CEX, DEX, and redemption data. It also spotlighted tensions between proof-of-reserve stability and volatile market pricing, and scrutiny of Aave’s choice to hardcode USDe’s value to USDT—a move that prevented cascading liquidations but raised questions about overriding price signals. Despite market stress, Ethena processed nearly $2 billion in redemptions at $1 across October 10–11, reinforcing its operational resilience and highlighting the need for clearer standards around synthetic-dollar stability and oracle composition.

Regulation

Stablecoins With Stable Growth

The number of unique stablecoin senders on Ethereum has surged to all-time highs, surpassing 1 million per week in recent weeks—a sharp rise from the 2020–2024 average of around 400,000. Since August 2024, weekly stablecoin sender growth has averaged 1.7%, pushing the 2025 weekly average to roughly 720,000. The rapid increase reflects booming stablecoin adoption globally, especially in countries facing currency instability or capital controls, where stablecoins function as practical dollar substitutes. Beyond payments, stablecoins serve as the backbone for perps, prediction markets, and tokenized real-world assets, driving continual address growth. As Ethereum remains the main settlement layer for these flows, its role in onboarding, rebalancing, and payouts cements its position as the dominant stablecoin infrastructure. Unless disrupted by policy shifts or peg instability, weekly sender counts are expected to keep climbing as merchant payments, remittances, and app incentives expand.

Source: The Block

Binance Pays $283M in User Compensation After USDe, BNSOL, and WBETH Depeg During Market Crash

Binance has paid out $283 million to users affected by the temporary depegging of USDe, BNSOL, and WBETH during Friday’s historic market crash, the largest single compensation event in the exchange’s history. The payments covered futures, margin, and loan users who used the affected tokens as collateral, as well as verified internal transfer and Binance Earn redemption losses. Ethena Labs CEO Guy Young disputed that USDe truly depegged, arguing the anomaly was isolated to Binance and not reflected across deeper liquidity venues. Binance countered claims that the incident triggered broader contagion, stating that the market downturn occurred first and that outdated limit orders—some dating to 2019—exacerbated token price dislocations such as ATOM and IOTX. To prevent similar events, Binance said it will add redemption prices to index weights and implement a soft price floor for USDe, while continuing to process remaining user compensation claims.

U.S. Government Bitcoin Holdings Jump to $36B After Record DOJ Seizure From Cambodian Crypto Scam Empire

The U.S. government’s bitcoin reserves have climbed to roughly 325,000 BTC (about $36 billion) following the seizure of 127,271 BTC ($14 billion) in what the Department of Justice called the largest forfeiture in its history. Prosecutors charged former Chinese national Chen Zhi with running a vast Cambodia-based crypto scam network that used forced labor and defrauded victims of billions in bitcoin. The forfeiture, filed by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York and the DOJ’s National Security Division, came alongside sanctions coordinated by OFAC, FinCEN, and the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office against 146 members of Zhi’s Prince Group Transnational Criminal Organization. Authorities accused the group of wire fraud, money laundering, human trafficking, torture, and extortion across at least ten compounds in Cambodia. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the joint action reflects a broader effort to protect Americans from foreign crypto fraud operations that have cost victims their life savings.

Coinbase, Robinhood Go Down for Hours Amid Widespread AWS Outage

A major Amazon Web Services (AWS) outage on Monday caused hours-long downtime for Coinbase and Robinhood, leaving users unable to access their accounts or trade. The disruption, which also affected global services like UK banking systems, airline operations, and Snapchat, exposed the heavy dependence of crypto platforms on centralized cloud infrastructure. Coinbase said it is “reorganizing services” to prevent future incidents, while AWS reported that the issue was “fully mitigated” later in the day. The outage reignited debate around centralization risks, with Syndicate’s director of engineering Sam Mason de Caires noting that “control has been concentrated into a handful of coordination layers that determine how the internet runs and whether applications stay online.”

Other Domestic Regulation Updates

• Dogecoin Foundation's corporate arm to go public via merger with esports company
• Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says US won't return to hostile crypto climate under Gensler
• Volatility Shares Files for 5x Leveraged Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP ETFs.
• Stablecoin Issuers Race for US Bank Charters as Stripe's Bridge Joins the Queue

Other International Regulation Updates

• Metaplanet's enterprise value dips below bitcoin holdings for first time
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs see largest daily outflows since August, worth $536 million
• Sony Wants Its Own Crypto Bank Too
• Australia's government proposes new powers for AUSTRAC to restrict crypto ATMs
• Japan’s big banks join forces on stablecoins to speed corporate payments
• Binance Cleared to Acquire Korean Crypto Exchange GOPAX

Pain & Gain

Pain

• Crypto ETFs see $755M in outflows as traders turn cautious after weekend wipeout
• Binance claims it 'does not profit' from its token listing process, calls allegations 'false and defamatory'
• Paxos mistakenly mints 300 trillion PYUSD on Ethereum, citing tech error
• US Seeks $14 Billion in Bitcoin From Cambodian Crypto Scammer in Record Forfeiture
• Alleged 'Trump Insider Whale' Denies Insider Trading, Opens New $340 Million Bitcoin Short
• JPMorgan Finds Native Traders Behind Sharp Crypto Market Crash
• 9 Biggest Bitcoin Crashes in History

Gain

• Hyperliquid activates HIP-3 upgrade enabling permissionless perp market creation
• BlackRock, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Elon Musk's xAI strike $40B data-center deal valuing power sites 160% above public bitcoin miners
• Cloudflare teams up with Visa, Mastercard and AmEx to lay payment rails for AI agents
• Stripe Adds USDC Recurring Billing on Base and Polygon
• OpenSea Reclaims Momentum